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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd